Dear reader,

Three weeks into March and three weeks into a new age of anxiety. What if Trump does get control of the Strait of Hormuz? What if oil prices send entire economies backwards? What if boots hit the ground? What if this is the start of yet another endless war?

For a deep dive on US-China relations, read our exclusive series on the run-up to Trump's visit to China. 

The Big Picture

Another Pearl Harbour?  
During talks with Japanese leader Sanae Takaichi, Donald Trump compares the US attacks on Iran to Pearl Harbour.

• Why it matters: Takaichi is walking a tightrope between a mercurial Trump and an aggrieved Beijing
• Meanwhile, why is one of Trump’s close allies visiting Hong Kong?
• And, how is the war undermining the US security umbrella in the Gulf?
• Also, how the rivalry between China and Japan is playing out in soft power

Ripples from Iran
What lessons can Beijing learn from the US-Israeli decapitation strikes on Iran and how does Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Plan B affect China?

• Why it matters: China must explore options as the US seeks to control the Strait of Hormuz
• Meanwhile, the PLA will hold defence talks with the European Union and Nato 
• And, why is a US aircraft carrier heading to Greece?
• Also, how long can weapon stockpiles hold out?
• Could Beijing reprise its 2023 mediation role, and what would exiled royal Reza Pahlavi have to say about that?

Wins and Falls

The profile of J-20 fighter jet designer Yang Wei disappears from a top academic website

Former nuclear test commander Liu Guozhi is also delisted 

Former banker and Hubei Communist Party chief Jiang Chaoliang is charged with taking bribes since the 1990s

Big Numbers

US$114 – the price per barrel of Brent crude, a rise of over half since the Iran war

30  –  the number of multinational companies opening regional HQs in Shanghai 

16.1% – the jobless rate for the 16-24 age group in China in February

Direct Quote

“Countries such as South Korea and Japan, as well as some in Europe and the Middle East, may become more interested in developing hedging strategies. This could involve expanding capabilities in military-civilian dual-use technologies, causing the global non-proliferation regime to face greater challenges.”

Zhao Tong, a nuclear policy expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses why the Iran war might drive a nuclear arms race.