Dear reader,

Success is supposed to arrive at a gallop, if you believe the Chinese phrase ma dao cheng gong 马到成功. After a year of unrelenting chaos, let us hope that we hit the ground running this year in the direction of prosperity and progress. Best wishes to all in the Year of the Horse.

We will suspend the newsletter next week for the Lunar New Year break. 

For a close look at the latest developments in the South China Sea, explore our new series on challenges and pathways in the disputed waters.

The Big Picture

He’s coming 
Discussions are under way to nail down details for Trump’s trip to China in April.

• Why it matters: much hangs in the balance, including an extension of the uneasy trade truce
• So, could Taiwan complicate the talks in Beijing?
• And, what impact will Sanae Takaichi's landslide win have on Beijing’s Taiwan policy?
• Meanwhile, Brussels and Beijing are turning the cold shoulder to each other
• And, the US is increasing military deployments in the Philippines
• Also, who was that in the South China Sea and what was that at the World Defence Show? 

Moon shots
China conducts a key spacecraft and rocket test for its crewed lunar landing mission.

• Why it matters: China and the US are racing to put moon boots on the lunar surface
• Meanwhile, will Elon Musk’s lunar pivot upset China’s plans for a base?

Wins and Fails

Xu Huping comes under investigation for his role in the Nanjing Museum artwork scandal

Xiao Jie, the first Communist Party chief and mayor of Sansha in the South China Sea, is suspected of corruption

Veteran investigative journalist Liu Hu is detained by police after reporting on alleged abuses by local officials

Big Numbers

58% – the share of experts in a survey who believe that China will be the world’s top economic power by 2036

30%  –  China’s share of the external debt of Zambia, which is collecting taxes from Chinese mining companies in yuan

0.2% – the rise in China’s CPI in January

6.9438 – the fixing rate of the yuan against the US dollar on Wednesday, the highest in 33 months 

Direct Quote

“Asean neighbours are getting tired of this because it is not really helping the regional [aims of] shared prosperity and navigating these issues together, and experts and academics in this field know what’s happening and things being magnified by the media.”

Hugo Santos, with the Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute, examines the narrative war between Manila and Beijing over disputes in the South China Sea.