Dear reader,

A threat. A backdown. Rinse. Repeat. Fatigue is setting in with Donald Trump's consistent inconsistency on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. There is no sign of any near-term end to the impasse so the markets are pricing in the cost of a new normal and the public in China are tuning out the US president's early-morning missives. One year into his second term and Trump has become all noise and no signal.

We will suspend our newsletter next week because of the public holiday.

Read our exclusive on how a Hong Kong-flagged tanker made it through the Strait of Hormuz. 

The Big Picture

The next normal  
Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran, US forces are ordered to “kill” boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and a third US aircraft carrier arrives in the Middle East.

• Why it matters: as Iran talks stall, time is running out for Trump to prepare for his trip to China
• Meanwhile, why is the Iran war the surest sign that the US is in decline?
• Also, what does China say in its new NPT report and why is a US senator pushing for Chinese involvement in nuclear talks?
• Meanwhile, what message has Xi Jinping sent about the Middle East impasse?
• And, why should China be wary of the US focus on global maritime chokepoints?

Close to the wind
The Chinese navy makes rare transits off southwest Japan following a rare transit of a Japanese vessel through the Taiwan Strait.

• Why it matters: the passage takes place at a sensitive time and is meant as a deterrent
• Meanwhile, why is Japan taking part in the massive US-Philippine joint drills? 
• And, what will be the true fineness of the Golden Fleet?

Wins and Fails

Baby pandas Ping Ping and Fu Shuang will take up residence at Zoo Atlanta 

Trump ally Steve Daines plans to visit China before the US president’s trip

Big Numbers

0 – the number of H200 chips China has bought from Nvidia

3 – the number of weeks the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been extended

US$4 million – the bounty the US is offering for the arrest of a Chinese money launderer

57% – the share of surveyed Taiwanese who do not believe the US would send troops to defend the island

Direct Quote

“We need a new equilibrium in our relations with China. Both sides [have agreed] to take incremental or baby steps towards that.”

Jaime FlorCruz, Philippine ambassador to China, tells the South China Morning Post in an exclusive interview