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Dear Reader,
China has made rare earths its own, dominating the global supply of minerals that are difficult and dirty to process and yet a key part of the clean energy transition. This year, it has also reminded the United States that it’s prepared to use its advantage to push back in the trade war – even if others are hit by the blowback. But how sustainable is this strategy? Japan felt the full force of rare earth export bans 15 years ago and has been reducing its reliance since then. Will the rest of the world wake up and smell the solvents too?
For a close look at China’s most advanced weapons, explore our multimedia project, The Red Arsenal. And dive into our series After the War on how World War II reshaped modern China.
We welcome feedback. You can email me at globalimpact@scmp.com and if you enjoy this issue, let us know.
The Big Picture
Mixed signal
China’s electronic warfare force deceives a foreign spy plane in an operation over the South China Sea.
- Why it matters: it is a rare public mention of a combat operation by the force
- Meanwhile, what do these photos tell us about progress on China’s fourth aircraft carrier?
- And, a PLA landing barge is spotted on the move
- Also, Indonesia might become the second foreign buyer of Chinese J-10C fighter jets
China vs the world?
China and the US tussle over rare earth curbs, raising even more worries about supply chains.
Our editors receive hundreds of comments and pieces of feedback across our coverage. This week, we dive into the debate between Coffee Beans and Don H., sparked by our featured commentary on the "Trumpian transformation" and its parallel to the Soviet Union's final years.
@Coffee Beans:
The US collapse will be much more dramatic. For one, the USSR disbanded peacefully. It was of no threat to its neighbours. Gorbachev's Perestroika mainly failed because it was badly planned (contrary to China's) and implemented too quickly which caused friction among the ruling elite. In other words, it was mainly internal. The US, on the other hand, is both internal and external - to hold on to its position at the expense of others through coercion.
Our response:
This addresses one of the central points of the commentary: the four layers of order that can be reshaped by a major power’s collapse. It’s an insightful lens that aligns with Zheng Yongnian’s argument that a decline in US global leadership is accelerating the “feudalisation” of regions and making international conflict “highly likely”. The core question is whether the US’ structural tensions will play out more on the domestic stage, as was the case with the Soviet Union, or project outwards.
You've still got a couple of days to join the conversation!
Wins and Fails
Cai Guoqiang and Arc'teryx face penalties for environmental damage from their fireworks at the foot of the Himalayas
Hanwha Ocean’s US shipbuilding units find themselves on China’s sanctions list
Nexperia’s CEO is forced out after US warnings
Big Numbers
-0.3% – the drop in the CPI in September as deflationary pressure persists
4.8% – the IMF’s latest forecast for China's GDP growth this year
8.3% – China’s better-than-expected growth in exports in September
62% – Chinese EV makers’ share of global sales in September
Direct Quote
“By fostering a more pluralistic approach, China can better harness the potential of its brightest minds. The current system, which resists singling out exceptional individuals for fear of seeming unfair, risks squandering opportunities to compete on the global stage.”
Shing-Tung Yao, one of the world’s most influential mathematicians, weighs in on how China can foster its own talent.
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