Dear Reader,

It’s summer in Australia and for most people that means giving full attention to sport – whether it’s to watch another England collapse in the Ashes cricket series or to see who will make the weekend cut in the golf. But some Australians, including Defence Minister Richard Marles, will have one wary eye on the Philippine Sea and the movements of a flotilla of Chinese naval vessels. It is not clear if they are headed south but less than a year has passed since Australian forces shadowed Chinese warships on their way around the continent. It’s all context for what is being described as the country’s biggest overhaul to the Department of Defence in half a century.

For a close look at China’s most advanced weapons, explore our multimedia project, The Red Arsenal. And dive into our series The New Narrative on how China is telling its own story.

We welcome feedback. You can email me at globalimpact@scmp.com and if you enjoy this issue, let us know. 

The Big Picture

Too little, too late? 
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi takes another parliamentary question on Taiwan to say nothing has changed about Tokyo’s position on the island. 

• Why it matters: Takaichi appears to be trying to defuse some of the weeks of tension that has built up but Beijing has heard it all before
• Meanwhile, Japan weighs missile exports to the Philippines and Beijing tries to rally support from allies
• And, Chinese and Japanese coastguard vessels have another stand-off around disputed islands in the East China Sea
• Also, what does the United States have to say about it all?

With more than 80 comments and counting, our readers are clearly engaged in a lively debate regarding the militarisation of the Asia-Pacific with our story, China bristles as Japan weighs missile export to Philippines.

Raymond@1 L.: "The US knows that the time for direct confrontation against China is past. So it is using a time-tested strategy- to use its proxies against China... Takaichi was most probably told to use the Q&A in the Japanese parliament to stir up trouble... China should now plan to inflict serious pain on the Japanese economy..."

Our response: Raymond, your analysis of the "proxy" dynamic speaks directly to the strategic realignment we are witnessing. The potential sale of Type 03 missiles isn't just a commercial transaction; it marks another major step for Japan to break the arms sale restrictions enshrined in its "Three Principles". By equipping Manila–a key part of the "first island chain"–Tokyo is effectively integrating the Philippines more deeply into a US-led security architecture, which explains Beijing's acute alarm.

You've still got a couple of days to join the conversation!

French connections
China rolls out the red carpet for French President Emmanuel Macron on his fourth visit to the country – but this time without an EU leader.

• Why it matters: China’s relations with the EU are barely scraping along, and Macron and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have much to discuss 
•  So, what did Xi say and what does Macron want?

Wins and Fails

The Jane Wu court case resumes in the US, with Northwestern University’s conduct at the centre of the lawsuit

Chen Weijun becomes the latest senior official in Xinjiang to face a corruption investigation 

The search resumes for Malaysia Airlines flight 370, 11 years after it disappeared over the Indian Ocean

Big Numbers

55% – the proportion of Europeans who want to keep some distance from both the US and China 

79 – average life expectancy in China in 2024 

180 billion – the number of express deliveries in China in the first 11 months of this year 

1,900 – the number of flights cancelled between China and Japan in December

Direct Quote 

“I believe both China and the United States have strategic ambiguities. It is not only the US that has ambiguity. China does too. China has not specified a deadline. But the difference lies in the nature of these ambiguities.”

Zhou Bo, ex-PLA colonel, weighs in on Beijing’s possible use of non-peaceful means over Taiwan