,

If 2025 was chaotic, this year promises to be carnage. It began with a bang in Caracas – something no one could have expected unless they had taken Donald Trump at his word. For many in China, the raid on Venezuela adds fuel to the pyre of the rules-based global order. If the United States is free to violate international law and norms, what stops any other country from acting on its own visceral instincts?

For a close look at the Taiwan issue, explore our new series on Beijing’s policy recalibration.

We welcome feedback. You can email me at globalimpact@scmp.com and if you enjoy this issue, let us know. 

The Big Picture

The Donroe doctrine 
The US abducts Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in a raid that reverberated around the world.

• Why it matters: the attack is the death knell for the United Nations and might trigger a global arms race 
• So, what risks and opportunities does it bring for China in Latin America? And what does it mean for the Belt and Road Initiative and talk of a G2?
• And, how is Beijing likely to play the game? 
• Also, what impact will it have on the PLA and security?  

Dress rehearsal?
The People’s Liberation Army conducts another blockade drill around Taiwan.

• Why it matters: Beijing is ratcheting up pressure on pro-independence forces on the island and the Venezuela raid has rattled nerves in Taiwan
• So, how close did a PLA drone get to Taipei？ 
• And, did Taiwan fail to detect the PLA’s J-20 stealth fighter? 
• Also, how will tensions between China and Japan play out in 2026?  
• Meanwhile, China rolls out the red carpet for South Korea’s president 

Wins and Fails

Liu Shyh-fang and Cheng Ying-yao are the latest Taiwanese cabinet ministers added to the list of “stubborn Taiwan independence figures” 

The Tianshan Shengli Tunnel, the world’s longest expressway tunnel, opens to traffic in Xinjiang 

Three more generals are expelled from the national legislature in the anti-corruption campaign in the military

Big Numbers

19% – the expansion target for China’s high-speed rail network over the next five years  

US$10 billion – the amount of investment unveiled by Shanghai for 50 big projects to boost innovation

50.1 – China’s manufacturing PMI in December 

Direct Quote 

“The most important thing for Europe is to stop defending a status quo that does not exist any more. Instead of being preoccupied with what we are losing, we should try to seize the opportunities – is there something we can gain?”

Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev on European vertigo in the new global order