Starlink is falling down, falling down, falling down
Nobody thought Starlink could be touched. Nearly 10,000 satellites are already aloft, making anti-satellite missiles toys.
The PLA is throwing billions at developing countermeasures: lasers, microwaves, particle beams ...
Then it happened.
One Chinese satellite was launched quietly, moving fast, coming too close for Starlink to dodge. SpaceX let out a gasp.
Then they ran.
Some 4,400 Starlink satellites are now dropping their altitudes hard, deeper into the atmosphere, where the drag bites, and one bad solar storm could deorbit them in a death spiral.
But SpaceX did it anyway.
Chinese scientists had sketched this play. Maybe a small swarm of satellites could rattle Starlink. But one satellite forcing more than 4,000 to duck and cover? Wilder than their wildest dreams.
More and more people in China have now come to realise that Starlink was not built by generals. It is a business. And business reels when the heat gets real.
Some teams are now digging into SpaceX’s supply chain to find the weak spots. Rare earths, magnets, the guts of rockets and satellites that are all flowing through China. A list of suspect suppliers is floating on Chinese social media platforms.
Could China kill SpaceX? Probably.
But it won’t.
Chinese space start-ups are lining up for IPOs. They need SpaceX’s story, a good story, to attract investors. Beijing needs those start-ups to close the launch capability gap.
It will watch. Let SpaceX keep flying. Keep selling dreams. As long as Elon Musk keeps his distance from the Pentagon. As long as the line doesn’t get crossed.
Cheers,
Stephen
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